January Market Report. Local property news for you...
A belated Happy New Year, welcome to our first market snapshot for 2024. We're happy to say it's been a busy start for all of our offices, and we find ourslves in agreement with the country's leading portal Rightmove.
“After a stop-start market in 2023, the initial signs suggest a smoother year for movers in 2024. More new sellers are now entering the market, and with more confident pricing. While the increased level of buyer activity that we’re also seeing may justify some of this increased pricing confidence from sellers, it’s important that sellers who are keen to find a buyer don’t get carried away with New Year enthusiasm when setting their price expectations. Elevated mortgage rates and the wider cost-of-living squeeze are still limiting buyers’ spending power. Accurate and realistic pricing for their local area is the recipe for success for sellers looking to get moving in 2024, and it’s been proven that over-optimistic pricing makes a move much less likely.” Tim Bannister Rightmove’s Director of Property Science
Here's the headlines
Tentatively promising new year start as buyer and seller activity jump
- Average new seller asking prices rise by 1.3% (+£4,571) month-on-month to £359,748, the biggest December to January increase in prices since 2020, though average prices are still 0.7% lower than at this time last year
- There has been some tentatively promising activity in the first week of the year, markedly stronger than a year ago, as more prospective buyers and sellers seem to have the confidence to get their 2024 moving plans started early:
- The number of new properties coming onto the market for sale is 15% higher than in the same period last year
- Buyer demand in the first week of 2024 is also 5% higher than in the same period last year. However, competitive pricing from sellers is still vital, with the number of new properties coming to market outpacing the rise in demand
- The number of sales agreed is 20% higher than during the first week of last year, indicating a strong return of buyer confidence when compared with the unsettled post-mini-Budget period a year ago
- The average 5-year mortgage rate is now 4.86%, compared to 6.11% at the July 2023 peak. While there may be more surprises to come, early indicators suggest a more stable year for the mortgage market after its volatility from September 2022 onwards
Prices
In December The Halifax house price index showed a monthly uptick of 1.1% in December, the third monthly rise in a row and up 1.7% year-on-year. Average new seller asking prices rise by 1.3% (+£4,571) month-on-month to £359,748, the biggest December to January increase in prices since 2020, though average prices are still 0.7% lower than at this time last year
Bristol overview: Over the last 12 months the average sales price in Bristol was £364,532. The total value of sales was £1,539,862,065. 33% of sales in the past 12 months were flats, achieving an average sales price of £276,016. Houses achieved an average price of £416,776. The highest value recorded by the Land Registry over the past 12 months was £2,950,000 for a flat and £2,765,000 for a house.
Demand
There were 50,067 mortgage approvals in November, a 4.6% uptick on the previous month and 9.9% above the same time last year (Bank of England). Buyer demand in the first week of 2024 was 5% higher than in the same period last year (Rightmove). The home buyer demand series in the latest RICS Residential Market Survey posted a net balance of -14% in November, the least negative figure for this metric since April 2022.
The first full week back after the new year has seen buyer interest jump out of the blocks faster than last year and the pre-pandemic period in 2019, according to Zoopla. “It’s early days but our data shows demand at the end of the first week of January was more than 10% ahead of the same period a year ago,” Richard Donnell, executive director of research at Zoopla.
Transactions
The HMRC report that 80,780 sales took place in November, -1.2% down on the previous month and significantly down on last years levels (-21.5%). RICS' measure for Agreed Sales came in at a net balance of -11% in November, an improvement on the previous reading of -23%, suggesting the downward trend in sales volumes is easing. The number of sales agreed in the first week of the year is 20% higher than the same period last year, as buyers return to the market (Rightmove).
Investment/lettings
At 6.2% in November, annual growth in rental prices in the UK is at its strongest since records began. The Index of Private Rented Housing Prices reports on both new lets and renewals. The average void period in December was 20 days, the same as in December 2022 (Goodlord). Rental price inflation is forecast to ease back to +5% through 2024, as tenant demand reduces against continued cost of living pressures (Zoopla).
We hope that was useful and informative. As always, our teams are here to help, get in touch with any questions about your local property market, and to discuss your home move considerations.
If securing a new mortgage or arranging a re-mortgage is important for you right now, click here to book an online consultation, our mortgage brokers are independent, and their services are free to you.
Finally, if you are (understandably) confused by some of the mixed market reporting, not least by some of the more sensational news reporting each month, click here for some independent insight into how House Price Indexes are compiled.
Sources: Rightmove, Zoopla, On the Market, Dataloft, Land Registry, National House Price Index, DLUHC
Contact your nearest office if you have any questions about your local property market.
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